CRRIC Interactive Scenario Modeller · April 2026
Stress-test the Myanmar cost-of-violence model in real time
Adjust the parameters on the left to see how the headline figure responds. The defaults are the strict-conservative anchors used in the published CRRIC paper. Use this tool to test reviewer challenges, generate alternative scenarios, or explore the upper and lower bounds of the estimate. Methodology follows Iqbal, Bardwell & Hammond (2019).
Model Parameters
IEP Multiplier
Multiplier on direct costs
2.0×
Conflict Deaths (annual)
Deaths per year
12,000
Output Gap vs Pre-Pandemic
Output loss
−13%
Resistance Force Strength
Active fighters
150K
Displaced Population
Total displaced (millions)
5.32M
ASEAN Spillover
Include in headline?
Separate
Total cost of violence — Myanmar 2024
$155.9B
USD purchasing-power-parity terms, annual flow
As share of GDP PPP: 55.7%
Comparator position
0%25%50%75%
Between Afghanistan/South Sudan (49–50%) and Syria (59–67%)
SAC State Military
$23.1B
SIPRI + IMF
11.0%
resource ratio
Resistance Economy
$2.08B
NUG + PDF + EAOs
Three-Domain Breakdown (Direct Costs Only)
Domain 1 — Containment SAC + Resistance economy
$25.2B
Domain 2 — Interpersonal Homicide + suicide
$2.1B
Domain 3 — Collective violence GDP losses + deaths + refugees
$50.7B
+ ASEAN Spillover Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia
$6.7B
Comparator Panel — Cost of Violence as % of GDP PPP
SYR
Syria 2017 (IEP)
67%
UKR
Ukraine 2022–23 (IEP)
64%
SYR
Syria 2021 (IEP)
59%
MMR
Myanmar 2024 (your scenario)
55.7%
AFG
Afghanistan 2017 (IEP)
50%
SSD
South Sudan 2017 (IEP)
49%
BGD
Bangladesh (Rohingya hosting only)
~0.3%
Methodology. Iqbal, Bardwell & Hammond (2019), Defence and Peace Economics 32(4): 403–426. Bottom-up cost-accounting framework, 18 indicators across 3 domains, plus CRRIC extension for resistance-side expenditure (Indicator 1c).
Anchors. Myanmar GDP nominal 2024 = $74.08B (World Bank); GDP PPP = $280B (IMF); population 55.18M; VSL = $507,471. SAC military = $5.0B nominal (SIPRI 2024). Output gap data from World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor 2025. Conflict deaths from ACLED. Displacement from UNHCR Myanmar Situation portal.
Use this tool. Adjust sliders to test reviewer challenges; presets show key reference points from the literature. The "Reset" button returns all parameters to the strict-conservative CRRIC baseline.
Anchors. Myanmar GDP nominal 2024 = $74.08B (World Bank); GDP PPP = $280B (IMF); population 55.18M; VSL = $507,471. SAC military = $5.0B nominal (SIPRI 2024). Output gap data from World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor 2025. Conflict deaths from ACLED. Displacement from UNHCR Myanmar Situation portal.
Use this tool. Adjust sliders to test reviewer challenges; presets show key reference points from the literature. The "Reset" button returns all parameters to the strict-conservative CRRIC baseline.