Asia's Deadliest Conflict — Myanmar Five Years On | CRRIC
CRRIC · Myanmar Crisis Dashboard Five years since the coup Compiled July 2026

Asia's deadliest conflict — and the world that looks away

Five years after Myanmar's generals seized power, the country has collapsed into Asia's deadliest war and a near-unequalled humanitarian catastrophe. This matrix tracks the human, economic, and geopolitical cost — drawn from the reporting synthesised by the Council on Foreign Relations and traced back to its primary sources.

00

The scale, in four numbers

A decade of fragile democratic opening was undone in a single morning on 1 February 2021. What followed is now measured in six-figure death tolls and a conflict so fractured that analysts struggle to count the combatants.

100,000+ killed
Conflict-related fatalities since the February 2021 coup
ACLED · via CFR
1,200+ factions
Distinct armed groups — "the most fragmented conflict on earth"
ACLED
#2worldwide
Most conflict-hit nation last year, behind only the Palestinian territories
ACLED
71%
Share of civilian fatalities attributed to the military junta
ACLED · CFE-DMHA

"It's deadly, it's dangerous to civilians, the conflict has spread across the whole country" — and no side has won.

How Myanmar ranked among the world's conflicts

Most-affected nations · latest annual data · ACLED
Palestinian terr.#1
Myanmar#2
Others
A country that spent half a century as one of Asia's poorest was, by the 2010s, visibly improving — and, however imperfectly, becoming a democracy. The 2021 coup reversed that trajectory in months.

What the dashboard covers

Six dimensions of a compounding crisis
Economic collapse01
Humanitarian toll02
Civilian killing03
Shadow economy04
Foreign enablers05
Global retreat06
01

The reversal

In the decade after Myanmar opened its political system in 2011, the economy grew by roughly 6% a year and poverty fell steeply. The coup erased more than a decade of gains almost overnight.

~6%/yr
Average GDP growth, 2011–2021 opening decade
World Bank
−18%
GDP contraction in 2021, barely recovered since
UNDP
49.7%
Poverty rate by 2023 — roughly double the pre-coup level
CNN · UNDP
~3× cost
Rise in the price of a basic food basket
Fulcrum

Poverty: a decade of gains, then a doubling

Share of population below the poverty line · World Bank / CNN
48.2%2005
24.8%2017
49.7%2023

Foreign direct investment: boom to collapse

Annual FDI inflows, US$ billions · Al Jazeera / Nippon / ISP Myanmar
$1.4B2012
$9.5B2015 peak
$4.9B2019/20
−75%post-coup

The middle class, halved

Structural indicators of economic decline · UNDP / World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor
Middle classcut in half
Near subsistence3 in 4
Inflation FY2530%+
Skilled outflow100,000s fled
02

Humanitarian toll

Hunger, once in retreat, has exploded. Nearly a third of the population now faces acute food insecurity, one western state stands on the edge of famine, and the health system has all but collapsed.

15.2M hungry
People facing acute food insecurity — nearly a third of the population
OHCHR
3.5M displaced
People driven from their homes by the fighting
World Bank
Faminerisk
Rakhine State, in the west, sits on the edge of famine
UN News
330+ attacks
Strikes on medical facilities since the coup
ReliefWeb

Food insecurity, by the numbers

Population under acute food stress · OHCHR
Food insecure15.2M
Rest of pop.~34M
By most measures, the share of people facing serious food shortages had been declining for two decades before the coup. That progress has now been reversed.

A collapsing health system

Cumulative attacks on health care since Feb 2021 · ReliefWeb / WHO
330+
documented attacks on medical facilities,
personnel and transport
03

The killing

The military's signature weapon is the airstrike against civilians — markets, monasteries, displacement camps, hospitals and schools. Human rights investigators say the pattern amounts to crimes against humanity.

4,881strikes
Junta airstrikes in 2025 — nearly double the 2,471 of 2024
NUG data dashboard
116,000+ homes
Homes burned by the military since seizing power
Mizzima
71%
Civilian deaths attributed to the junta
ACLED
ICCwarrant
Prosecutor seeking arrest warrant for junta chief Min Aung Hlaing
ICC-CPI

Airstrikes nearly doubled in a single year

Recorded junta aerial attacks · opposition shadow-government dashboard
2,4712024
4,8812025

Named atrocities

Selected documented strikes on civilian sites
May 202522 children + 2 teachers killed in a strike on a school in Depayin Township, Sagaing.Fortify Rights
Dec 202533+ patients, caregivers and staff killed in an airstrike on a hospital in Mrauk-U, Rakhine.Irrawaddy · UN
Survivors describe not only indiscriminate airstrikes but soldiers torching villages, executing detainees, and leaving bodies in the fields. Investigators say these acts amount to crimes against humanity.
04

Shadow economy

Lawlessness has bred a criminal economy of extraordinary scale. Myanmar is now the world's largest opium producer, the region's methamphetamine engine, and — by one global index — the most crime-ridden country on earth.

1,080MT opium
Estimated opium output — world's #1, overtaking Afghanistan in 2023
UNODC
$2.4B value
Estimated worth of the opium economy
France 24 · UNODC
1Btablets
Record meth tablets seized in Thailand in 2024 — nearly all from Myanmar
Regional reporting
$Billions/yr
Generated by cyber-scam compounds staffed by trafficked workers
VOA · OHCHR

From runner-up to world's largest opium producer

Myanmar overtakes Afghanistan, 2023 · UNODC
Myanmar output1,080 MT
Opium valueup to $2.4B
The country has also become the planet's methamphetamine engine — Thailand alone seized a record billion meth tablets in 2024 that nearly all came from Myanmar.

The most crime-ridden country on earth

Global Organized Crime Index ranking
#1
highest criminality worldwide
Global Initiative OC Index
05

Foreign enablers

In 2023–24, an alliance of ethnic armies and volunteer militias drove the military out of much of the country. What turned the tide was not the generals' skill but a network of authoritarian collaboration.

~50% held
Share of Myanmar controlled by resistance forces at the peak, late 2024
Britannica
14miles
How close resistance forces came to Mandalay, the second city
Irrawaddy
$3B
Assistance dangled by Beijing to the junta
Foreign Policy
Apr 2026
Managed elections install coup leader Min Aung Hlaing as president
Al Jazeera · CFR

The autocratic supply chain that reversed the war

Foreign military and financial backing for the junta, 2025–26
Belarus
Advanced military systems — V3D radar technology and ground-based missile systems.
Justice for Myanmar
Russia
Myanmar became the first buyer of Russia's new assault transport helicopters, expanding junta control of the skies.
Fulcrum · Reuters
Iran
Secretly supplied critical jet fuel — keeping the planes that bomb civilians in the air.
Reuters
China
Dangled some $3 billion in assistance; earlier brokered truces with two powerful ethnic armies.
Foreign Policy

The battlefield swing

Territorial momentum · resistance peak vs junta counter-offensive
Late 2024 — resistance peak~50% of country
2025–26 — junta retakes Lashio & China highwaymomentum reversed
Resistance gains Junta recovery
06

The world looks away

Aid is dwindling, sanctions are being unwound, and states across three continents are sending Myanmar citizens back into the warzone. The region's own bloc watched its peace plan collapse within two days.

12% funded
Of the UN's $1.14B 2025 plan for ~20M people, by midyear
UN News
$259M cut
Aid to Myanmar axed in 2025 by the dismantling of USAID
Asia Society
2days
How long before the junta repudiated ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus
HRW
~4,000TPS ended
Myanmar nationals stripped of US Temporary Protected Status, Nov 2025
NBC

Sending people back into a warzone

Deportation and return pressure on Myanmar nationals, by state
State / blocActionScale
United StatesTerminated Temporary Protected Status, declaring the country safe~4,000
EU (5 states)Germany, Austria, Denmark, Netherlands, Greece exploring offshore "return hubs"policy
ThailandHosts the largest Myanmar population abroad (~half undocumented); mass deportations144,000+*
IndiaAggressively deporting refugees, especially into the strife-torn northeastongoing
MalaysiaRepeated deportations despite urgent UNHCR appeals to stopongoing
BangladeshRefugees pinned in Cox's Bazar camps incl. Kutupalong, the world's largest4M+ regional
*Thailand returned more than 144,000 Myanmar citizens in a single three-month sweep in 2024. Thailand hosts over four million Myanmar people in total.

Washington's quiet drift toward the regime

Sanctions relief and lobbying · 2025
Jul 2025sanctions lifted
DCI Group$3M contract
Roger Stone$50k / month
In July 2025 the US Treasury lifted sanctions on several companies and individuals linked to the military — including men accused of brokering the junta's weapons. The junta, sensing an opening, hired a Trump-connected lobbying firm to "rebuild" ties. A regime that bombs schools is now purchasing respectability by the month.

Source & acknowledgement

This research matrix visualises data reported and synthesised by Joshua Kurlantzick in "How the Coup Turned Myanmar Into Asia's Deadliest Conflict — and Why the World Is Looking Away," Council on Foreign Relations, 10 July 2026. That article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 licence; the views in it are the author's own. Every figure below is traced to the primary source cited by CFR, not to CFR itself. This visualisation is an independent, non-commercial reworking produced by CRRIC for policy and academic use, and is not endorsed by or affiliated with CFR.

High — official / primary source, direct metric Medium — reputable analytical estimate or monitor Reported — attributed press synthesis

Primary sources traced from the CFR article

ACLED — fatality count, fragmentation, junta share of civilian deaths · World Bank — pre-coup growth, poverty, displacement, Myanmar Economic Monitor (Jun 2025) · UNDP — GDP contraction, middle-class collapse, subsistence · OHCHR — food insecurity, trafficking into scam compounds · UN News — Rakhine famine risk, humanitarian funding gap · UNODC — opium output, meth, Golden Triangle economy · Global Initiative — Organized Crime Index ranking · Fortify Rights — Depayin school strike · Irrawaddy — Mrauk-U hospital strike, resistance advance · NUG data dashboard — airstrike counts · Mizzima — homes burned · ICC-CPI — arrest warrant application · Britannica — territorial control · Justice for Myanmar — Belarus systems · Reuters / Fulcrum — Iran jet fuel, Russia helicopters · Foreign Policy — China assistance, Lashio · HRW — ASEAN consensus, crimes against humanity, Thailand · Asia Society — USAID cuts · NBC — TPS termination · Infomigrants — EU return hubs · RFA / Amnesty / UNHCR — deportations · Mining Weekly / France 24 — sanctions relief · Myanmar Now / Irrawaddy — lobbying contracts · Al Jazeera / Nippon / ISP Myanmar / ITD / CNN — FDI, poverty, skilled outflow.

Conflict & Resilience Research Institute Canada · CRRIC Myanmar Crisis Dashboard · Compiled July 2026