Conflict & Resilience Research Institute Canada

The compound cost of Myanmar's conflict — displacement, economic collapse & ASEAN spillover

A research matrix tracking internal displacement, conflict-economy dynamics, narcotics, cyberfraud, maritime deaths, and cross-border humanitarian costs across the ASEAN region. Data sources: UNHCR, World Bank, UNODC, OHCHR, IOM, MMC — as of March–April 2026.

Myanmar Internal ASEAN Spillover Rohingya Response Shadow Economy Maritime Crisis

Internally displaced (Myanmar)

3.71M

30 Mar 2026 · UNHCR

Refugees & asylum-seekers abroad

1.61M

31 Mar 2026 · UNHCR

Stateless Rohingya outside Myanmar

1.30M

31 Aug 2025 · UNHCR

Estimated cost of coup (2021–23)

$26.7B

USD · ICBMS analytical estimate

01 Displacement Cascade

IDPs inside Myanmar Refugees abroad Stateless Rohingya abroad Stateless inside Myanmar

5.32M

people displaced or stateless — inside and outside Myanmar

IDPs inside Myanmar3,708,300

Refugees & asylum-seekers abroad1,611,313

Stateless Rohingya abroad1,301,401

Stateless Rohingya inside Myanmar519,647

ASEAN frontline share of all refugees abroad20.8%

Broad ethno-religious communities implicated in displacement8

Sources: UNHCR Myanmar Situation portal · UNHCR Route-Based Snapshot. Time anchor: March–August 2025.

02 ASEAN Frontline Host States

Total Myanmar refugees / asylum-seekers Stateless Rohingya subset

Malaysia

196,700

Rohingya: 119,100 · Largest ASEAN host
RM 3B GDP gain possible (legal work scenario)

Direct host + spillover

Thailand

136,500

82,400 in 9 border camps · Rohingya: 500
1.6M Myanmar land arrivals Jan–Oct 2025 (51% undocumented)

Direct host + spillover

Indonesia

2,700

Rohingya: 2,500 · IOM flash appeal $2.5M (2026)
924 Rohingya maritime arrivals Jan–Oct 2025

Direct host + spillover

Cambodia

~100K

Forced scam-labour (OHCHR estimate, 2023)
Part of regional scam-trafficking ecosystem

Indirect spillover

Lao PDR · Philippines

Partial

Identified as transit/destination in scam-trafficking nexus · Precise country totals not available

Indirect spillover

Brunei · Singapore · Viet Nam

—

No quantified Myanmar-specific refugee or criminal-economy indicator retrieved

Evidence gap

ASEAN frontline total (3 states)

335,900

Malaysia + Thailand + Indonesia · UNHCR

ASEAN frontline Rohingya

122,100

Combined 3-state Rohingya stock · UNHCR

Smuggling fee — Malaysia route

$3,406

Per Rohingya respondent · MMC 2024

Smuggling fee — Thailand route

$529

Myanmar nationals · MMC 2024

03 Economy in Tatters: Post-Coup Macro Indicators

GDP contraction / output gap (%) Inflation FY2025/26 (%)

−13%

output gap vs pre-pandemic baseline, FY2025/26 forecast

Real GDP growth FY2020/21−9%

Real GDP growth FY2021/22−12%

Output gap vs pre-pandemic (FY2025/26)−13%

Inflation FY2025/26 forecast~31%

Analytical cost of coup (Feb 2021–Dec 2023)$26.7bn USD

Source: World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2025 · ICBMS conference paper (non-IFI estimate).

04 Shadow Economy: Narcotics, Cyberfraud & Trafficking

Regional scam-centre economy

$40B

USD/year · UNODC 2025

Opium economy — Myanmar

$641M–$1.05B

USD · UNODC Survey 2025

Opium cultivation

53,100 ha

Myanmar 2025 · UNODC

Opium production

1,010 MT

Myanmar 2025 · UNODC

Opium production — Myanmar 2025 (metric tons) Meth seized — East & SE Asia 2024 (metric tons)

Forced scam workers — Myanmar

120,000

OHCHR "at least" · 2023

Forced scam workers — Cambodia

100,000

OHCHR estimate · 2023

Meth seized (East & SE Asia)

236 MT

2024 · Myanmar/Shan source · UNODC

Scam-trafficking states (OHCHR)

5+ states

Myanmar, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Philippines, Thailand

05 Maritime Crisis: Bay of Bengal & Andaman Sea

Sea crossing attempts Dead or missing

2025

deadliest year on record for Rohingya sea movements

Total crossings (Feb 2022 – Mar 2026)25,300+

Dead or missing (Feb 2022 – Mar 2026)2,300+

Sea crossings in 2025 alone6,500+

Dead or missing in 2025~900

Crossings Jan – Apr 13, 20262,800+

Thailand land arrivals from Myanmar (Jan–Oct 2025)1.6M

Undocumented share of Thailand land arrivals~51%

Sources: UNHCR press note (2025 deadliest year) · Reuters/UNHCR graphic · IOM Intraregional Factsheet 2026.

06 Unrealized Opportunity: What Legal Integration Could Unlock

Malaysia GDP gain if refugees get right to work

RM 3B/yr

Scenario · IDEAS Malaysia

Annual tax revenue unlocked (Malaysia)

RM 50M

Fiscal upside · IDEAS Malaysia

Malaysian jobs created for locals

4,000

Local spillover · IDEAS Malaysia

Thailand refugees newly eligible to work outside camps

42,000

2025 policy shift · IDRC / UNHCR

Confidence note — ASEAN data

Only Bangladesh currently has a strong public fiscal-cost series. ASEAN calculations in this matrix rely on a mix of direct hosting counts, movement counts, operational cost proxies, and criminal-economy indicators. Malaysia legalization scenario figures are scenario estimates, not realized outcomes.