MYANMAR – Benefits of Peace

(compiled by Rotarian Terry McGauley, terry.mcgauley@shaw.ca)

Peace in Myanmar (also known as Burma) would bring profound and wide-ranging benefits after more than 75 years of intermittent civil war and ethnic armed conflicts, especially since the 2021 military coup. Here are the major benefits a genuine, lasting peace would deliver:

1. Humanitarian and Human Lives Saved

• End to daily killings, airstrikes, artillery shelling, landmines, and sexual violence.
• Over 3 million internally displaced people (as of 2025) and ~1 million refugees could safely return home.
• Dramatic drop in child recruitment, forced labor, and trafficking.
• Access to food, clean water, and healthcare would improve immediately → reduction in malnutrition and preventable diseases.

2. Economic Revival and Poverty Reduction

• Myanmar was one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies before the coup (7–8% GDP growth). Peace could restore that trajectory.
• Reopening of trade routes (especially with China, India, and Thailand) that are currently blocked or dangerous.
• Revival of tourism (pre-coup: ~4–5 million visitors/year; now <500,000).
• Foreign direct investment (FDI collapsed from $5.7 billion in 2019 to <$1 billion now) would return in mining, energy, manufacturing, and infrastructure.
• Agriculture (40–50% of workforce) could modernize without fear of forced relocation or crop burning.
• Reintegration of Myanmar into regional supply chains (garments, electronics, natural gas).

3. Infrastructure and Energy Development

• Safe construction/rehabilitation of roads, bridges, railways, and ports (many projects stalled since 2021).
• Resumption of major Chinese Belt & Road projects (Kyaukphyu deep-sea port, Muse–Mandalay railway, oil/gas pipelines).
• Reliable electricity supply (currently only ~50% of population has access, and blackouts are common even in Yangon).

4. Education and Human Capital

• Schools and universities could reopen normally (millions of children have lost 3–4 years of schooling since 2021).
• Teachers and civil servants would be paid regularly again.
• Brain drain reversal: hundreds of thousands of doctors, engineers, IT professionals, and young educated people who fled could return.

5. Political and Institutional Stability

• Possibility of a new federal democratic constitution that gives meaningful autonomy to ethnic states (the core demand of most armed groups).
• Restoration of the rule of law, independent judiciary, and anti-corruption measures.
• Re-engagement with the international community → lifting of sanctions, renewed aid, debt restructuring, and possible re-admission to preferential trade schemes (EU’s Everything But Arms, U.S. GSP).

6. Social and Cultural Benefits

• Preservation of ethnic languages, cultures, and religious sites currently under threat.
• Reduction in opium/heroin and methamphetamine production (Myanmar is the world’s second-largest opium producer, largely because of war and lack of governance in border areas).
• Healing of deep societal trauma and reduction in intergenerational cycles of violence.

7. Regional Stability

• Reduced refugee flows into Thailand, India, Bangladesh, and Malaysia.
• Lower risk of spillover conflict or transnational crime (drugs, arms, human trafficking) in Southeast Asia and South Asia.
• Stronger ASEAN cohesion (Myanmar’s crisis has paralyzed the bloc since 2021).

In short, peace would likely turn Myanmar from one of the world’s most isolated and impoverished countries back into a middle-income emerging market within a decade — similar to the rapid progress it showed from 2011–2020 during the semi-democratic transition. The cost of continued war is catastrophic; the benefits of peace are transformative.

Challenges to Achieving Peace

Achieving peace in Myanmar remains one of the most daunting global challenges in 2025, as the country enters its fifth year since the 2021 military coup. The conflict, now involving the junta, over 20 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), and pro-democracy People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), has escalated dramatically, with over 53,000 violent incidents recorded across 319 of 330 townships between February 2021 and July 2025. Despite calls from civil society, religious leaders, and the international community for reconciliation, structural, military, and geopolitical barriers persist. Below are the primary challenges, drawn from ongoing developments.

1. Entrenched Military Control and Impunity

• The junta, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, maintains a stranglehold on central regions, vital resources (e.g., oil, gas, and mining), and state institutions, despite losing significant territory—over 40% of the country by mid-2025. This allows it to sustain “scorched earth” tactics, including airstrikes on civilians, attacks on healthcare facilities (169 documented in early 2025), and widespread use of landmines, which caused 889 civilian casualties in the first nine months of 2024 alone.
• Decades of impunity for war crimes and crimes against humanity—rooted in the military’s unchecked political and economic power—fuels ongoing atrocities, eroding trust and blocking accountability mechanisms like the International Court of Justice’s genocide case. The junta’s activation of conscription laws in February 2025 has further depleted ranks through forced recruitment and abuses, prolonging the fight without addressing grievances.

2. Fragmented Opposition and Coordination Gaps

• While the National Unity Government (NUG), EAOs, and PDFs have made gains—capturing key areas like Lashio and expanding into urban centers like Mandalay—their efforts are hampered by loose chains of command, insufficient weapons supplies, and internal divisions over strategy and post-conflict governance. Ethnic groups demand federalism and autonomy, but differing priorities (e.g., the Arakan Army’s control in Rakhine vs. PDF urban pushes) hinder a unified front.
• Resistance forces lack capacity for decisive victory or stable administration in liberated areas, risking governance vacuums that could invite chaos or junta counteroffensives.

3. Escalating Humanitarian and Access Crisis

• Nearly 20 million people (one-third of the population) require aid in 2025, including 6.4 million children, amid acute food insecurity for 16.7 million and displacement of 3.6 million. Conflict disrupts supply chains, with blockades, shifting frontlines, and junta restrictions severely limiting humanitarian corridors—only 15% of the 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan is funded.
• Compounded by the March 2025 earthquake (over 1,700 deaths) and seasonal floods, this creates a vicious cycle: malnutrition, disease outbreaks, and collapsed health systems (exacerbated by the exodus of 70% of doctors since 2021) make peace negotiations seem distant when survival is the priority.

4. Controversial Elections and Political Deadlock

• The junta’s planned December 2025 elections—its first since 2021—are widely viewed as a sham to legitimize rule, excluding opposition voices and held amid violence that has already forced by-elections in unsafe areas. Pro-democracy groups and ethnic minorities fear further marginalization, with no genuine dialogue or ceasefire in place, making reconciliation “far-fetched” even in 4–8 years.
• Structural issues like racial discrimination, exclusionary laws, and the military-drafted 2008 constitution perpetuate division, as highlighted in UN consultations where youth and ethnic communities reject “rule by guns.”

5. Geopolitical Interference and Regional Paralysis

• External powers complicate peace: China brokers selective ceasefires (e.g., with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army in January 2025) to secure border stability and Belt & Road projects but props up the junta, limiting leverage over EAOs. India and Thailand prioritize non-interference for security reasons, while ASEAN’s “five-point consensus” remains stalled by procedural gridlock.
• The international community faces coordination challenges, with sanctions and aid cuts (e.g., post-Rohingya crisis) reducing engagement, yet insufficient support for resistance governance risks prolonging the stalemate. Spillover effects—refugees, drug trafficking, and instability—threaten Southeast Asia, but fear of a “failed state” deters bold action.

6. Economic Collapse and Social Trauma

• A projected 1% GDP contraction in fiscal year 2025, hyperinflation, and sector-wide stagnation (agriculture, manufacturing) drive irregular migration and deepen poverty, making peace dividends hard to envision. Warlord economies in border areas sustain conflict through opium and arms trades.
• Intergenerational trauma from 75+ years of strife, including child recruitment and sexual violence, fosters cycles of revenge, while geographic isolation in ethnic states limits awareness and support.

In essence, 2025 is a “crucial juncture” for Myanmar, with resistance momentum clashing against junta resilience and external inertia. Without decisive international mediation—prioritizing inclusive talks, aid access, and justice— the conflict risks urban escalation and state failure, far outweighing any benefits of the status quo. Religious voices, like Archbishop Stephen Than Myint Oo, emphasize that “peace is the only tool to liberate our country,” but translating this into action demands urgent, coordinated global resolve.